The reasons for the bear market
How to use blockchain transparency?
What is a bear market? It's when equity markets are losing more than 20% of their previous highs.
There is a perception that cryptocurrency is completely independent of other financial markets. But that's not entirely true. Stocks that are heavily capitalized are also in a bearish phase. In this case, we can observe correlations and overlapping trends between them and digital assets.
This correlation has become possible because institutional investors are starting to actively invest in cryptocurrency. This reflects the maturity of digital assets and leads to the emergence of new financial products and modes of regulation. The main difference and advantage of cryptocurrency is transparency, because of blockchain technology. This allows you to properly assess the risks of your investments or to trace any transaction.
Today we will look at the reasons for the bearish trend from the macroeconomic side and the ability of regulators and lawmakers to DeFi.
There is a perception that cryptocurrency is completely independent of other financial markets. But that's not entirely true. Stocks that are heavily capitalized are also in a bearish phase. In this case, we can observe correlations and overlapping trends between them and digital assets.
This correlation has become possible because institutional investors are starting to actively invest in cryptocurrency. This reflects the maturity of digital assets and leads to the emergence of new financial products and modes of regulation. The main difference and advantage of cryptocurrency is transparency, because of blockchain technology. This allows you to properly assess the risks of your investments or to trace any transaction.
Today we will look at the reasons for the bearish trend from the macroeconomic side and the ability of regulators and lawmakers to DeFi.
Due to payments to users from previously laundered funds and the dilution of assets, tracking specific transactions makes sense only before the funds enter the bot cluster. Further analytical work is carried out only with impersonal tools included in the ML-bot cluster.
Our investigation team traced the path of funds out of the cluster ML-bot and determined that most of the assets were transferred to RenBTC bridge.
To find the connections between the source transactions to the addresses of the RenBTC project and the subsequent converted assets in the form of RenBTC tokens, the analytical tool Drawbridge from MatchSystems was used.
The principle of operation of Drawbridge is reduced to a comparison of the combination of factors of the source assets and their analogue after passing through the RenBTC bridge.
As a result of the analysis of the ML-bot cluster, a scheme of its work was revealed, described in the diagram below.
Our investigation team traced the path of funds out of the cluster ML-bot and determined that most of the assets were transferred to RenBTC bridge.
To find the connections between the source transactions to the addresses of the RenBTC project and the subsequent converted assets in the form of RenBTC tokens, the analytical tool Drawbridge from MatchSystems was used.
The principle of operation of Drawbridge is reduced to a comparison of the combination of factors of the source assets and their analogue after passing through the RenBTC bridge.
As a result of the analysis of the ML-bot cluster, a scheme of its work was revealed, described in the diagram below.
4. ANALYSIS
1. Our funds: bc1q6efxz3q6w9983tqm7m6p3yhu59h062r6a53wc9;
2. Transaction 0c04c2bcf32c56511bb020468fcb2a6e46ce010de293069c63afd4509697da7d to the address of ML-bot;
3. One-time address of ML-bot: 1B1XnbaDUehX2B1hH77kBj9JFzW1g4Jn2P;
4. Transaction 9eab1b7b609b7620cd7137804faad446a1ac630d4c4627d128c2b6dd3c598920 to the cluster of ML-bot;
5. Recipient of assets in the cluster of ML-bot: 1H17AgGngwiUTnMjKvhzUxwzBLxphQMj88
(included in the cluster with root-address (18oxDVbE9BDNn1LLdy5CGAP7HUr4fGVFBT);
6. One of many transactions of the cluster of ML-bot to RenBTC: 5c9a0d3cf7e4c8a51bd6560a5139c2ceab0f46c463981e0755ab544facea6d6a;
7. RenBTC: 3LVVAj5cLjYRKsAWgSjn7pNKoDxT5XMa1L
8. Matched by DrawBridge mint- transaction (BSC) with RenBTC tokens from RenBTC bridge: 0x4c512826228960 0cf3942345e4cc55446e1dce09e76f18f13 13f8eac44c2a28d;
9. Matched by DrawBridge recipient of RenBTC tokens (BSC), address: 0x6e5f03731bc53debe3ad673ec9436053a500e22d;
10. Matched by DrawBridge burn-transaction (BSC) with RenBTC tokens to RenBTC bridge: 0xed41e5941f0a46fac0ac032916a46abb951e24345b9e6cebb2e71b7bdbdb9400;
11. RenBTC: 0x95de7b32e24b62c44a4c44521eff4493f1d1fe13
12. Matched by DrawBridge transaction withdraw BTC from RenBTC: 36f5553753c68104f6be77de52518905e35096683865f742044ee9cada393504
13. Matched by DrawBridge recipient of BTC: 3PHLr246vZ2GQRW2dAHE73Szm2wMShKiSG (in this case it is Kraken exchange deposit address).
2. Transaction 0c04c2bcf32c56511bb020468fcb2a6e46ce010de293069c63afd4509697da7d to the address of ML-bot;
3. One-time address of ML-bot: 1B1XnbaDUehX2B1hH77kBj9JFzW1g4Jn2P;
4. Transaction 9eab1b7b609b7620cd7137804faad446a1ac630d4c4627d128c2b6dd3c598920 to the cluster of ML-bot;
5. Recipient of assets in the cluster of ML-bot: 1H17AgGngwiUTnMjKvhzUxwzBLxphQMj88
(included in the cluster with root-address (18oxDVbE9BDNn1LLdy5CGAP7HUr4fGVFBT);
6. One of many transactions of the cluster of ML-bot to RenBTC: 5c9a0d3cf7e4c8a51bd6560a5139c2ceab0f46c463981e0755ab544facea6d6a;
7. RenBTC: 3LVVAj5cLjYRKsAWgSjn7pNKoDxT5XMa1L
8. Matched by DrawBridge mint- transaction (BSC) with RenBTC tokens from RenBTC bridge: 0x4c512826228960 0cf3942345e4cc55446e1dce09e76f18f13 13f8eac44c2a28d;
9. Matched by DrawBridge recipient of RenBTC tokens (BSC), address: 0x6e5f03731bc53debe3ad673ec9436053a500e22d;
10. Matched by DrawBridge burn-transaction (BSC) with RenBTC tokens to RenBTC bridge: 0xed41e5941f0a46fac0ac032916a46abb951e24345b9e6cebb2e71b7bdbdb9400;
11. RenBTC: 0x95de7b32e24b62c44a4c44521eff4493f1d1fe13
12. Matched by DrawBridge transaction withdraw BTC from RenBTC: 36f5553753c68104f6be77de52518905e35096683865f742044ee9cada393504
13. Matched by DrawBridge recipient of BTC: 3PHLr246vZ2GQRW2dAHE73Szm2wMShKiSG (in this case it is Kraken exchange deposit address).
Concrete example:
14-17. It isn’t obviously possible from the technical point of view without information about these exchanges account activities. Due to no access to the information we applied reverse analysis, where the starting point was the address of the sender of the laundered funds to the ML-bot client.
The sender of funds in BTC to address bc1qnf6ztm0x04rt6ykfe4xg9pzutunz0khcenw6ra was address 1N3NbYPSEhgy7A27P6d5wS5bXeCfWEXxka.
The address 1N3NbYPSEhgy7A27P6d5wS5bXeCfWEXxka received >70 BTC in >95 incoming transactions, while direct transactions from exchanges received >50 BTC, namely (few examples):
The sender of funds in BTC to address bc1qnf6ztm0x04rt6ykfe4xg9pzutunz0khcenw6ra was address 1N3NbYPSEhgy7A27P6d5wS5bXeCfWEXxka.
The address 1N3NbYPSEhgy7A27P6d5wS5bXeCfWEXxka received >70 BTC in >95 incoming transactions, while direct transactions from exchanges received >50 BTC, namely (few examples):
The sender of USDT in TRC20 to address TJMvcabnCp46XoUveDCfAxyUDhmC8p6KPS was address TJQh8iEvZMj48p9atwmzB7F7aCySwpQSKW.
The address TJQh8iEvZMj48p9atwmzB7F7aCySwpQSKW received >380k USDT in >85 incoming transactions, while direct transactions from exchanges received >340k USDT, namely (few examples):
The address TJQh8iEvZMj48p9atwmzB7F7aCySwpQSKW received >380k USDT in >85 incoming transactions, while direct transactions from exchanges received >340k USDT, namely (few examples):
Particular attention should be paid to the receipt of TRX to this address, since it is necessary for making transactions in the TRC20. These assets came from two exchanges:
• KuCoin:
ac3cc2329e4afe08dd95516d397c466ec57a465b037ff771905e6099831c58ab;
•Binance:
1c1e0cd1346596607ace16622abe5d6db0c9e3624b4d3e81bd6048583c941986.
• KuCoin:
ac3cc2329e4afe08dd95516d397c466ec57a465b037ff771905e6099831c58ab;
•Binance:
1c1e0cd1346596607ace16622abe5d6db0c9e3624b4d3e81bd6048583c941986.
